We have been focused on a series of economic indicators that have made shown US, and global economic weakness for that matter, questionable since last October. The US economy showed solid weakness in February as well, raising questions about core weakness developing in the Trump economy.
However, this past week, on Friday 5th, April, the US economy was given a boost by very strong employment numbers, showing a powerful 198,000 new hires by US firms versus a 33,000 for the weak February release. The jobs market does seem to be rebounded well.
This does take some pressure off President Trump, as an economic meltdown will send shockwaves through the economic world. More importantly, if the US jobs market remains strong, Trump naturally is in a better position to be re-elected in the coming 2020 election if the jobs market is strong – he will drive that narrative to the people.
The current unemployment rate is at 3.8% and is holding firm at some of the lowest levels in 50 years. Black, Hispanic and Asian unemployment levels are the best in recorded history which gives the Trump reelection drive for more momentum, as he could start to eat into the Big Tent of the Democrat.
Despite that 33,000 February release in the US employment figures, the strong average of 3 months is at 180,000 which is by historical standards, powerful. Despite the strong labor market, some parts of the US economy are showing sings of fatigue – housing being one of them.