The US stock market started the year 2019 with a boost from the Fed as it signaled that it would pause its hike cycle and of course the promise of an agreement between the US and China on trade – but what are the next drivers of the US stock market? Keep in mind that the most recent economic releases in March have been mixed.
The S&P 500 and the Dow are both trading 4 percent below their all time highs, while Nasdaq remains 5.5 percent below its all time high. While more economists indicate that the world will slower growth in 2019 and 2020, some investors are wondering just how much impact slower growth will have on corporate performance and more specifically, profits.
The Citizenships Economic Surprise Index (you should see this one it is interesting) has indicated more weakness since the end of 2017. Of course there are many factors that have impact on the US economy but the number of jobs created last month was only 20,000 – a massive shock to the system as job creation in the end, impacts housing, autos and all consumer activity.
As far as the US – China trade talks are concerned there are too many investors looking for talks to become a market force to drive stocks higher – we disagree. At Classiarius, we believe that that stocks fade on no trade deal.