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US Recession Fears and Yield Curve Changes

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Only a few months ago, the warning signals for a US recession were flashing, and the shock waves that were sent through markets were causing confusion. The 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year note have moved away from that “inverted” state recently after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2019. The US-China Trade War, slowing global growth and weaker economic releases had the attention of markets for months and at one point the Dow Jones droppped 800 points in August. It is the consumer that has been spending and holding the US economy together and more importantly, the job market is solid, last month creating 226,000 new jobs – well above market expectations. Now many strategists and economists are calling for 2 percent plus growth in 2020. Since October the US 10-year yield has risen 40 basis points, and in the past week the US-China “first step” as I call it (there will be 100 more steps in this protracted trade war), has given investors confidene.

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