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US Non-farm Payrolls and Equity Rally

US Non-farm Payrolls and Equity Rally

The three-month average for Payrolls has been adjusted to 140,000. We must recognize the danger of a very strong report tonight, for example 200,000 or a very weak release of 50,000. These numbers, exceedingly strong or weak, could have powerful impact on bond markets and Fed policy decisions in the coming months. In our view, a report of 100,000 to 150,00 would suggest consistency and help drive the S&P 500 higher still. 

Of course, President Trump will continue to pressure the Fed to act but the impact that the Fed can have on markets is clearly far less than it was 3 or 4 years ago. Even ex-Fed officials have been voicing this very idea recently. Still, we feel that equity will continue higher in the coming weeks, turning September 2019 into a strong month for all equity indices. 

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