Tensions between the United States and Iran have risen in the past week as the Trump White House is now openly discussing a response to the Iranian shooting down of a Global Hawk drone. Leaders from around the world such as Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad who said, “I think as far as I can see, it is America, which is making all the provocation.” The attack on the Global Hawk, an attack in which Mr Trump said may have been a mistake by a new general, who is said to have been punished by the regime, is now being put aside.
According to the White House, Mr Trump said that he was locked and loaded to strike back but when told by his advisors that 150 Iranians would die in an retaliatory attack, he said that he wanted to act in a proportionate manner. Still, some are saying that the President is doing the right thing by having a cool head and rather than an attack on the Iranian military, or Republican Guard, he is now added to the already heavy sanctions that are weighing heavy on the Iranian economy. The attack on the unmanned spy drone will not result in a hot war or attack, but will raise tensions.
Our Views: We have written about Trump and his supporters, those who are experts on advanced game theory strategy, and it seems that he is sending both positive and somewhat provocative messages to Tehran. He is clearly waging war on the Iranian economy and at the same time, offering an olive branch. Iran is now suffering from a shrinking economy, GDP shrinking by over 2% in 2018 and expected to shrink by as much as 6% this year, as well as US attacks in its military by way of an aggressive hack to Iranian computers. Iran has been fighting back and is letting the US know that things will not be easy – Iran will not be pushed around. We think that they will go to the table for talks, without shots being fired, but later in the year.