Some stocks are in negative excess territory and are begging to be purchased. We do not give trade ideas but like a trend higher – in this case, higher across US indices in the coming months.
While we at Classiarius are still cautious, happy to start building longs in in the S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Dow selectively throughout next week, it is becoming clear that this market, now price searching, is forming a bottom. Despite our charts and partners` views focusing on the real possibility of another move down this week or next, for those who are picking stocks, and are seeing beaten down names becoming attractive for various reasons, we support buying but again selectively.
Our view is that until January of 2019, US indices will rally to the November buy will pay off into the year end.
We are driven by trends and see the November 12, 14, and 15 period of one that could provide opportunities to add to start building positions. Again we do not give trade ideas but encourage people like yourself to focus on one and two month charts, oversold conditions and excess sold conditions. This fear that we saw in October was driven by concerns of a rally that, like the global economy, was running out of energy and with emerging markets under pressure and the US payroll strength, leading to a solid hike trajectory by the Fed – this fear was overdone and ushered in gift of very weak stocks – have a look at Deutsche Bank and its recent lows. This stock, for long-term investors could be a winner in 2019. We suggest you study and make your own decisions.
The November 12, 14 and 15 buy period can be adjusted but by the end of next week, we think being long 35% to 50% of full longs does make sense. Our trend comfort zone is 2 months to 3 months. We do not give trade ideas but openly look at trends that could develop in the coming weeks.
Our big prediction – President Xi of China will announce a comprehensive trade deal that gives US firms massive opportunities in Tech, Energy and Equipment that will, in the next 2 to 3 years, significantly uptick US exports to China. Trump will do a victory lap and tell the world how wonderful he is – but again, the results are what count.