The export driven component of the China economy is large, and a recent report shows that exports have fallen for a fourth consecutive month in November. Beijing is doing its best with stimulus to keep the economy humming along but the persistent pressures on the manufacturing sector is a clear result of the US-China Trade War. This 17-month long trade dispute is now becoming a permanent fixture on business and economic news websites – many market participants are calling for a prolonged war of words between the US and China. As per our views, the trade war with China could last for 5 to 10 years, perhaps more as China takes it rightful position on the world stage. According to President Trump, the trade talks “are moving right along” but one must wonder if the President is able to do a deal with China in the next six months to one year – you know, just the Phase One or partial deal. We are now looking at the December 15 deadline, and in our view, a day that triggers a selloff in global equity markets. We feel a “no deal” is in the cards and equity markets fall hard.
US-China Trade Deal Demands
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