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US and Iran Exchange Threats – Viewpoints

US and Iran Exchange Threats

We often talk about strategy and tactics for escalation in our articles and audiovisual packages as they relate to the geopolitics and more specifically to trade wars in the past 10 months. Here is an article and some analysis. 

In a recent announcement, President Donald Trump suggested that Iran, after shooting down a US Hawk drone, may have done it unintentionally. Iran has claimed that the drone had ventured into Iranian airspace which is a violation of international law, giving the sovereign state the right to attack and destroy the drone. But Trump went as far as saying that it was a “mistake” and done by someone “loose and stupid” implying that he is giving Tehran the freedom to take a neutral position as he tries to get them to the table an talk. Keep in mind that last week, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzou Abe visited Tehran, speaking to their leadership and making it clear that he was also on a mission for the US, speaking on behalf of President Trump. However, Iran has made it clear, when Abe visited that the Iranian government did not trust Trump nor the US. Now a top commander warned the world that Iran was “ready for war” as it is now clear that the idea of sitting at a table and talking was out of the question. President Trump now said says that “Iran made a very big mistake” by shooting down this RQ-4A Global Hawk, a very large drone in the US military. Now the US has said that its drones are flying over the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, in international waters, pointing to Iran as the one not focusing on the law. This issue will only escalate. This article was sourced from ABC News. 

Our analysis:

What is Trump doing ? Why is he sending confusing messages ? Well, it seems that Trump and his Administration are applying a lot of pressure to Iran, using advanced Game Theory Techniques (we have a video on Game Theory for trade),  as a strategy to push Iran to the table for talks. Currently the US is asking eight countries to stop buying Iranian oil, while at the same time, applying sanctions. Currently, the US is causing the inflation needle to rise in Iran and at the same time cutting off oil shipments – Iran has seen exports of oil, a vital source of revenue – fall from 2.4 million barrels per day of exports to 1.4 million with the US threat to drive it to zero exports. This is set to wreck Iran’s economy in the next 2 years. 

 

 

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