While most of our readers are savvy and connect trade talks, their success, however small, to global economic growth and equity markets, on this platform we like to point out trends. The impact of the recent trade talks and their “success” on global equity will last for months, perhaps six months or more. Yes, we do feel, from our studies, that this trade war is a protracted war and will last for years, perhaps over a decade – long after Trump has moved on. But small success will 1. free up trade, 2. encourage investment in businesses and 3. result in new trade rules that will open China as it crowbars the global system open. The global system is for the most part closed – study research at top banks and it is clear, visit Japan, China, Mexico and South Korea, and it is crystal clear. Ever buy a hamburger in Zurich, Switzerland? Global markets will be forced open and with this so-called “win” on Phase One by the Trump administration will move trade talks forward in many many countries. Global equity markets will benefit. Just with this announcement several analysts have called for the US S&P 500 to rally to 3,180 to 3,300 over the next year or two. We have produced some videos on Classiarisu.net – Youtube over the past two weeks (US-China related). And read our article on Japan equity, small caps……
Trump, Trade Talks and Global Economy
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