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Tom Lee on Bitcoin Price

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Still risk-off for Bitcoin, not a matter of price

  • The start of this risk-off period was July 31st because Fundstrat’s proprietary Bitcoin Misery Index (BMI) fell below 66.  Historically, a downturn in the BMI and a break below 66 signaled forthcoming weakness (see our report dated 7/30 –> click here for report).  And this has largely played out in 2019.  We are now waiting for the BMI to fall below 30 before concluding sentiment has properly reset.

  • Other factors subsequently fueled the risk-off call for Fundstrat (Slide 3).  Among the factors:
    —August, S&P 500 rangebound and unpopular opinion is Bitcoin waiting for S&P 500 breakout;
    —Sept. 19th, White House banned “vaping,” highlighting Bitcoin lacks sufficient regulatory protection;
    —Sept. 25th, Bitcoin fell below its 200-day mavg, raising questions whether bull market ended;
    —Oct. 23rd, Congressional testimony/hearings on Facebook is ultimately hostile to crypto and Bitcoin.
  • Look for more comments and interviews by Tom Lee on Youtube as he appears on business news on a regular basis – Equity analysis, economy and crypto

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