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Tom Lee talks `inverted yield-curve` and `recession`

Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, Recession?

About 80% of the research that I discuss or review from Tom Lee and his team at Funstrat Global is Crypto and Crypto Indices and their performance, but keep in mind that Tom is one of the most respected equity strategists on Wall Street. Here is a snapshot of a piece on the inverted yield-curve and a possible recession. He makes a very interesting point …..

The latest piece from Fundstrat by Tom Lee is interesting for those, like me, who try to avoid the “noise” and focus on historical facts and market moving releases. Tom discusses a lunch with an old colleague from his JP Morgan years and the subject came up about the number of “parties” who are cheering on a recession in the US. He mentions short sellers (obvious), bond holders (continue to do well), China (a recession would force Trump to fold), Trump haters (want Trump out), Democratic candidates (a recession would force Trump out) and several others.

If history is a guide, a recession could make the 2020 re-election of Trump in the least questionable if not impossible. Tom points out some statistics from 2005 to 2008 before the Great Recession to call our attention to the lag time between an inverted curve and a recession. Think about the start of an inverted yield-curve and the number of months that markets traded well, before the economy actually fell into recession.

He makes several interesting points about current market trends and the use of “recession” and the phrase “inverted curve” in the main stream media. We are hearing these words and phrases daily and non-stop but the question remains, Is a recession six months or twelve months away? And note that it is clear that we are hearing a chorus of people who are cheering on a recession, some turning very bearish on their equity views. Have a look at Fundstrat Global and their research…..

I would argue that, at least in the short-term, S&P 500, the Dow, Nikkei 225 and Kospi could very well rally. I have listed a series of tech names that I like and Japanese small caps, happy to resend. JMB 

 

 

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