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Saudi Arabia Almost Changed, the US Economy and Bitcoin Stories

Saudi Arabia Almost Changed, the US Economy and Bitcoin Stories

Here at Classiarius we selected three stories for expansion that have impact on the start of 2019.

Imagine the sweeping changes that almost happened in the Muslim World, before a journalist was killed. 

Saudi Arabia and Jamal Khashoggi. Most now agree with the Turkish government that the journalist was killed in the Saudi Mission in Turkey. There were waves of attacks on the Saudi regime and the Royal Family because their relationship with President Trump. But one message was lost in this story. It is important to note that there have been many social changes in Saudi Arabia, many to do with education and the freedom of women (in public spaces) and their ability to travel and even see movies at theaters that have recently been built in the Kingdom. And those who travel in the Middle East know, that in addition to regular police officers, Sharia driven legal systems like those in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran have “religious police” walking the streets to ensure that people follow the law, the religious law. If a woman shows her arm or leg, or her hair falls and is not covered, if she is wearing too much makeup, these police exact justice, sometimes harshly, on the spot. Well the new Crown Prince or Mr Everything as he is called, Mohammed bin Salman or MBS to his friends, had recently pulled the religious police off the streets, reducing both fear and stress everywhere including shopping malls of Saudi Arabia. MBS had made changes to the system to allow women better access to education and more freedom to travel. It was clear that this new leader was doing his best to modernize Saudi Arabia, allowing women more freedom. In short, he was a driving force in the changes in this ultra-conservative state. Unfortunately, despite all the changes and reductions in overpowering laws, the very idea of verbally disagreeing with MBS can trigger a response as some parts of the system have not fully changed. 

Imagine a global economy weakening, with the US and China trade war going all wrong.

The US Economy. After an expansion that started in the Obama era, the US economy gained momentum under President Trump and his tax cuts as well as deconstruction of the heavy rules, the mass deregulation of the economy gave the system a strong boost. However, there is growing fear that the US economy under the weight of Fed interest rate hikes, the fading of tax cut energy as well as fiscal spending slowing, and a trade war with China, GDP growth is slowing and could fall from the 4.0 percent high to the 1.0 to 2.0 percent range. One fear that we have here at Classiarius is the possible consequences if in fact there is an economic slowdown in the coming years. The fear is twofold. First the ability of the government to prevent a hard landing is just not there as there is currently little flexibility in the system and second, the hunger for CEOs to hire staff in the future is, in their minds, not necessary. Imagine a recession with no new jobs and no tools for the Fed and the government to ensure a soft landing of a weakening economy. A collapse in the US, China and Japan would take the world down with them, the EU would be overwhelmed with this global slowdown. The US economy will likely expand between 1.0 and 2.0 percent in 2019 but the fear of China fading from 6.7% to 6.2% is high. The fear is that the global drivers of growth start to fade in 2019 is real, so prepare yourself.

Imagine if Bitcoin and Crypto having a great year in 2019. We see the $9,000 level trade by February of 2019, then higher.

The excitement and euphoria in crypto currencies at the start of 2018 was shockingly high, taking Bitcoin, the blue chip benchmark coin that traded to just under $20,000 in January of this year, collapsed then traded lower throughout the year. By the time November and December rolled around, a capitulation sell-off took place that knocked many players out of the market permanently and caused Bitcoin to trade from the $6,100 to $6,500 range where it had rested for months since June, to the $3,100 to $3,500 range in early December. But despite this weakness two things changed in 2018. First there was a new wave of ATMs built for Bitcoin users, doubling the number from 2017  to a new high of 4,100 in 2018, and second, there were new players in the institutional space moving into the crypto and blockchain world. We combine these facts with recent comments from Tom Lee – we saw him speak recently. Note that we have studied Tom Lee and his work, as well as focused on key charts and volume related technical analysis, and we have come up with in-house targets in crypto. We see Bitcoin trading to $9,000 by February and $15,000 by March of 2019.

Team Classiarius

 

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Disclaimer: We do not provide investment advice or strategies, this article is not intended as such but only to provide you the reader with information. Please conduct your own research before any investment of any kind.

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