After a rally of 15 percent in the past week, driven by institutional investors and speculation that Bitcoin will be validated with ETF approvals by the SEC, perhaps in August, market participants are now focused on what we at Classiarius call a post-regulator shock.
In the March through June 2018 period, regulators around the globe, especially the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US and the Financial Service Agency in Japan, the SEC and FSA respectively, were forced to address a Wild West market and more specifically, a string of heists, one in Japan amounting to over $500 million. Now that regulators have more control and the market seems to be more stable (fewer bogus coins being issued), there is a sense of security building.
As a result, Bitcoin rallied to over $8,200, a level we have not seen for months.
According to Tom Lee, managing partner and founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, “the trajectory of the bitcoin narrative has inflected.” Mr Lee has been bullish Bitcoin for some time and has suggested, with a rotation out of gold, that Bitcoin could rally to the $25,000 to $50,000 level. And when looking at charts, the Bitcoin rally will only have the $10,000 resistance and inflection point stopping it from extending.
The second half of 2018 will be exciting for Bitcoin and other major digital currencies. We are in the camp that believes Darwin will slowly take over, and the weak coins will not exist when 2019 arrives. However, the stronger and well developed and well managed products will enjoy investor attention.
There are other countries taking steps to ensure that digital currencies are treated like other respected assets. Earlier this year, South Korea blocked anonymous bank accounts from engaging in cryptocurrency trading. The growing list of regulator actions and regulatory coordination will, in the long run, encourage more confidence and thus attract global investors. And note that there are thousands of global investors that would embrace a new and trusted asset – that being Bitcoin. So that $25,000 level that Mr Lee spoke of, well it`s not too far away when this asset becomes mainstream.