In a recent survey, most economists shared a view that that US will tip into recession by 2021. The poll released on Monday was picked up by the Washington Post, which we sourced for this piece. The outlook reflects the growing skepticism among economists and investors that the US economy will be able to come out of the other side of this trade war with China unscathed.
Many believe there will be serious harm done to the US economy and it could spell trouble for the Trump White House. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, Told CNBC last week that there is a 40 percent chance of recession before the 2020 election. In February he estimated it would be 35 percent.
Stock markets saw exceptional volatility since the start of August, as weak data from Germany and China and a clear warning sign in the US, a short but clear inverted yield curve, that would show recession if it lasts three months or more. Trump and his advisors say that the US economy is safe and said that consumers are rich, although he did admit that tariffs could hurt consumers.
Chinese leadership wants to disrupt the US election and this trade war is a perfect platform to do just that, Trump knows this. Think about the Chinese government working with the US Democrats and US Social Media in 2020…..Trump cannot win.