Published on January 10, 2019 – WNYC (interview with Ian Bremmer – geopolitical strategist)
Mr Bremmer discussed the government shutdown and the immediate impact on thousands of workers who are not being paid. He also spoke about the strong employment situation in the US as the unemployment rate of 3.7 percent jumped to 3.9 percent as this being a positive for the economy. It means that the increase in unemployed is good as people who have been unemployed for many months, even years are coming back to the market for work. People who are being rehired are over 50 and being retrained, this is good for the economy.
Mr Bremmer is a geopolitical scientist, and he is calling for geopolitical climate change as the world as the world order changes. He points out in this interview that there will not be a trade war between the US and China as 1. the US stock market is down about 15 percent since the end of 2018 while 2. the Chinese market is down about 25 percent. There are worries about a weaker global economy in 2019 so the March 1st deadline that the talks between Xi and Trump have in place, could find a solution. Trump has spoken positively about Xi. There be a deal on March 1st but the problem with China is deeper – intellectual property and the South China Sea are major issues that will be addressed in the future.
The broader structural relationship between the US and China are heading in a more challenging direction.
The two most important countries in the world – China and the US – will see challenges in the coming years as China strengthens, while the US sees the challenges as a threat to the US and her allies in the Asia region.
He said that Brexit situation is important, and that no one knows what will happen in 2019. Currently the UK has lost 15,000 jobs lost. He went on to say that the next 10 years will bring technology risk. In the 10 years starting from 2019, the global “one system” supported by the United States is breaking in two pieces – one US system and one China system.
According to Mr Bremmer, Obama did not want to challenge the Russians on cyber security, but the Trump administration does. The potential that the US Congress is going to go after the Russians is high. When Congress does decide to go after the Russians, there will be a lot of hitting back. The Russians have the greatest capacity to hit the US and they are the least risk averse. A Russian cyber attack is the biggest fear for 2019.