A global economic slowdown could trigger a spike in food prices and a humanitarian crisis that few people are expecting. We have made audiovisual presentations (2018 on global food shortage and population) that touch on the point of food scarcity and limited distribution of commodities. The world crisis in food could be more of a reality for the developing world as shipping lanes and credit markets are challenged in the future. Of the 50 countries that are challenged, all but 4 are emerging market economies. People in these countries spend a large portion of their income on food and shelter.
Of the 50 most vulnerable countries in a global index they have a share of about 26 percent of the global GDP while having 59 percent of the global population within their borders. There is a concentration of at-risk countries in the Middle East and Africa with Libya, Tajikistan, Montenegro, Syria and Algeria – all will suffer if food prices start to rise in the coming decade. Libya now has a net import level of 9.1% of GDP for food, so food prices would hit this country hard. Food prices could surge in the next 10 years as they have since 2010, increasing by 41% in some commodities. Remember that it was food prices that surged in 2010 and 2011 the triggered the Arab Spring.