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Germany – Fear of Recession is Real

Germany - Fear of Recession is Real

The numbers are starting to build and they look weak, collectively pointing to an economic slowdown in Germany. German Industrial Production declined 1.9 percent month-on-month in November coming in below consensus for growth of 0.3 percent. German will release GDP data for fourth quarter and for 2018 next week.

The latest industrial production numbers marked the third consecutive fall in the country`s  production numbers and it clearly raises concerns over economic growth. In October, industrial production fell 0.8 percent on the previous month. So the German economy now looks like it is starting to stall, not contract, but stall and actually move nowhere.

This comes as DAX, the key equity index in Germany, saw its worst year in a decade in 2018 as concerns of global growth increase and volatility spikes across all equity markets around the globe. This series of releases, showing weakness for 3 consecutive months, is alarming but with the GDP release next week, many global investors will be looking closely at Germany and will likely be trading aggressively on its release. More on this topic next week.

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