Looking at the list of G20 participants and the bilateral relationships forming, it is now transparently obvious that the global trade system will be reformed in the next decade. We spend time studying these relationships and here are some points worth considering. Will Trump walk out of the meeting? Who knows but he will be injecting surprises into the rules based system.
1. Trade relationships are moving from groups or multilateral with many counterparts to bi-lateral with just two counterparts. This is a result of the global Bretton Woods System collapsing as it is a rules based platform that now turns each country into a single entity to look at itself. Reference Ian Bremmer and his book, G-Zero World.
2. The upcoming G20 meetings will see more countries fading away from the US system and naturally moving toward the Chinese system. Look for two systems in the future with two internets and two trading systems, one an open system driven by the US and the other a closed system driven by China. Look for two internets in the future.
3. The US and China have made it clear that they are going to lead in the future, but note that Americanism is dead and that the future will be a web and series of relationships that look more like pre-WWII. A system in which each-country-for-itself rules – with leaders such as the US, China and perhaps Japan and the EU.
4. The G20 will change and there will be more leaders using language that looks like Xi of China and Trump of the US. They will become more independent in one sense and more focused on regional leadership. Note that the US, Japan, India and Australia are working together in the Far East to police trade routes. China is working with North Korea to counter this group.