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G20 – Japan, US, China and Equity Market Shocks, Our Views

G20 - Japan, US, China and Equity Market Shocks, Our Views

As we anticipate the G20 Osaka Summit on June 28 and 29, we see a very busy Japanese Prime Minister Abe who is, in the Japanese tradition, a fantastic host to a global event. He is not only working with the US on trade but also building a foundation for the future of Japan that will allow this nation to share in the future of leadership in the East with China and India. The US and China have the much anticipated meetings between Mr Xi and Mr Trump, but Japan will be a key player of course as it meets China, the US, India and the EU – so this G20 is a fantastic platform for Japan to prove its position on the world stage. Other points to watch for at the Summit …..

1. US and China will meet to discuss trade. However, the verbal support for equity markets will come in the form of Trump and Mnuchin comments – expressed in short-term spikes in S&P 500 and Nikkei 225. I surely like to fade these spikes. S&P 500 at 2,950 to 2,980 is a gift as is Nikkei 225 at 21,500 and higher. A reversal and collapse is possible. 

2. Japan and China – Japan will work more as a diplomatic moral compass in the region as it reaches out to China, India and the Korean Peninsula to forge a foundation for peace. 

3. Japan will work with the European Union and members of the new CPTPP, a derivative of the original TPP, now with Japan leadership. Japan is building a network of treaties and agreements for the future. Look for Japan leadership in the future, with the Osaka G20 Summit as a launching pad.

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