China influence in Asia and Africa is squeezing Europe and forcing the US and Russia to make changes. Many people say it is Russia that is breaking up Europe but China seems to have more influence each day.
Everything in the Europe Union is falling apart and this view is underscored by Brexit, migrant issues in France and Hungary, budget challenges in France and Italy as well as NATO and now an arms race. The downward spiral of the European Union is clearly supported by President Putin who is now targeting Europe with Intermediated Range Nuclear Missiles. The treaty that was designed to prevent use of intermediate range nuclear missiles is now off the table and the US, Russia, France and the UK are all thinking of adding firepower to their arsenals. This new arms race is real.
Arms control and verification are the two key components of keeping the peace between the US and Russia. And one of the pillars of nuclear arms control was allowed to expire on February 2, a move that the US is said to have enacted to force Germany and France into a position of protecting themselves and they seem to be welcoming the challenge. The US view that it was the policeman of Europe from 1945 to 2008 means less to Washington now, as the US has less interest in the global management and policing business. But even if the US does want to exit Europe and the Europeans attempt to replace NATO, the US is getting support from states like Poland, Romania and Ukraine – they want the US to stay.
But why are Washington and Moscow restarting an arms race? That’s easy, China is now a threat.
But note that this is a chess game with the US, Russia and China wondering how to approach it. But both Putin and Trump are concerned about China. Any treaty that prevents the US and Russia from building weapons, gives one country a clear advantage – China. Some geopolitical experts such as Peter Zeihan and Ian Bremmer now admit that the greatest threat to Russia is Chinese building Belt and Road projects and other bases to surround Moscow over the next 50 years.
All of the noise in Europe about the US, France, Germany and Russia is not about Europe, it is the threat of China in Africa and its threat to challenge Moscow and Washington. The balance of power is changing fast.