While most political leaders use key events such as local and state elections or senate races to ratchet up rhetoric in what we would call a “high season” for political theater, President Donald Trump has changed all the rules by having two levels, “high season” and “uber-high season” for Trump World. He says anything at anytime to anyone, 24/7 over 12 months each year so the press and the public never get break. Imagine just one week, one week Mr Trump would just shut down his social media and go silent, just not say a word, for 7 consecutive days. This sounds unnatural and even a bit worrying if the president were being presidential.
President Trump`s unpredictability has been an asset in dealing with the Chinese and Germans especially, keeping them guessing about his next move or even if he is, on this day (as opposed to last week) a true friend or a scary man with tariffs in his back pocket. As a result, and not despite his behavior, because of his erratic behavior, Trump has done more on trade in 2 years than President Obama did in eight. Now we are not taking political sides here, as we think winning trade stances by President Obama, President Bush, President Trump or even President Bill Clinton are great – they all play for the same team. Winning for America is winning for all Americans – this sounds very patriotic and nationalistic but this is normal in most countries – especially in South Korea, China and Japan.
The press in Beijing believe that the White House is full of hoodlums – this is an interesting point.
China is now off balance and is fighting to build out a series of military bases called the Pearl Necklace that will, in the end, protect China and its sea lanes in the future. Tariffs will end up higher in Europe and Asia in the next 5 years, so prepare for instability in the system. By nature of the different economic systems the US and China will be fighting battles for the next decade. Look for more on this topic in the coming weeks and months.