President Donald Trump continued to tweet this week as the China Trade Talks move into the next phase, and something odd happened. The President started talking about 6G Technology. This caught the tech industry by surprise and their networks lit up with questions. Some thought he was just joking while others felt that he must own a time machine. The current tweets are coming fast as US and Chinese negotiators are talking ahead of the March 1 deadline to ban Huawei and ZTE form operating in the US. Note that many countries have faded away from these firms due to concerns about national security issues.
The tweet about 6G technology was thought to be odd as the technology does not exist, as telecom companies are just on the cutting edge of 5G with many wireless networks just starting to implement this new technology. In his tweets the President seems to point toward Huawei but indirectly talks about connecting technologies – again before the March 1st deadline. He could use executive order to add pressure to the Chinese leadership.
We at Classiarius feel that the Chinese and the Americans are just talking before the inevitable – they will soon break it to the public, that they cannot reach a deal because of the structural problems in trade. These trade talks will break down in 2019 and then move to 2020. There is no clear decision or possibility for a decision in the coming year. We think it will take 5 years to rectify the trade issues.
Trump might be using his advanced game theory tactics in negotiating. We think that Chinese offer small but insignificant short-term solutions only to make the US President save face, again a short-term solution. More on this in the coming weeks.