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Despite the Shutdown, the US Labor Market Powers Ahead

Despite the Shutdown, the US Labor Market Powers Ahead

Job Creation in the US is robust as the Payrolls release Friday beat all expectations, despite the US government shutdown. 

While we have learned that late into an economic recovery the jobs market starts to fade, the current Trump economy seems not to understand this fact. The US economy created 304,000 jobs in the month of January – a number that has many scratching their heads in disbelief. This was the 100th month of job growth in the US, and it is clear that investors have been waiting for this number as a proxy for the general health of the economy. Well, the answer is yes, it is healthy.Note that the numbers are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings rose just 3 cents on the month, or 0.1 percent, below the 0.3 expected gain. 

Note that the December first release of 312,000 jobs created was revised downward to 222,000 and the November release of 176,000 was 196,000 jobs created. Keep in mind that the 3-month average is well over 200,000. With the US economy creating 200,000 to 250,000 each month over the past 6 months, long-time unemployed workers are now moving back onto the market. Note that this jobs market performance comes at a time when the US, China and other economies are being downgraded in forecasts for 2019 and 2020 performance.

The three-month average now stands at 241,000 per month, a number that many analysts and investors focus on, and again, a number that is well above the average expected in a 9 1/2 year expansion. A continued robust jobs market will be one part of the economy that continues to drive growth as consumers spend money when they are employed or have job offers.

For the full year, the average monthly Payrolls gain was 223,000 per month. 

Team Classiarius



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