Imagine the Democrat Party selling an oppressive Culture War to people of color and they start, as they are now, to move into higher education and better careers. Will the Culture War implode narrative implode again? We at Classiarius believe that Asians, Hispanics and more African Americans might vote Republican in 2020 as they move up the social ladder.
Since the 1940s in the United States, the Democrats were brilliant at putting together a big tent, a coalition of minorities, gays, single women, greens and unions. The groups of minorities were mostly in the same camp, all locked out of the top universities, standing on the outside looking in. But things started to change in the 1960s and 70s, when the top universities, all conduits to the top careers or to the capital for new firms starting up in new technologies, opened their doors. In 1960, 95 percent of the top universities were white, WASPS, with few Asian, Hispanic or any person of color, or even people of Italian or Greek decent. Universities were exclusive. Fast forward to 2018 and in the major universities on the East Coast, Harvard, Yale and Princeton and between 18 and 21 percent of the student enrollment is Asian, while top West Coast schools like Stanford, UCLA and Cal Tech have 30 percent, or more, of the student body from Asia.
Recent data show that Indian Americans (from the Indian subcontinent), have university graduation rates of 72 percent for undergrad and about 30 percent having advanced degrees. as a result their average income is about 100,000 US dollars, almost twice that of the national average of $55,220 (Department of Labor stats). Indian Americans, like Korean, Japanese and Chinese Americans earn higher wages than Italian, French and Greek Americans. So what happens to the Democrat coalition with oppressed Asian minorities, now totaling 20 million citizens, are top earners.
More importantly, Asian woman are marrying outside of their group, 36 percent marrying mainly European Americans, while 20 percent of Asian men are marrying outside of their group, again with European Americans being the majority of their mates. Recent data from shows that 28 percent of Hispanic Americans are getting university degrees while 26% are marrying outside of their group. These minorities are fading away. Have a look at Ted Cruz, an Hispanic American who married a European American, his children look European. According to Pew, 50% of Hispanic Americans by the 4th generation call themselves American, only American, not Hispanic Americans. There are currently 60 million Hispanic Americans, of which 30 percent vote Republican. But this number will increase as they assimilate.
So with a changing society driven by education and changing demographics, the economic concerns of Asians, African Americans and Hispanic Americans as well as gays, greens and unions, are all moving, so one would think that political concerns for these groups will change as well. How can they stay on point when they might have very different feelings toward US foreign policy, gun control and human rights.
And as immigrants are forced to assimilate, as they move to higher status via higher education and rejecting their roots, will they be less interested in identity politics? The answer is probably “yes” as they look at themselves as Americans.
The Democrats have problems with leadership as the average age of Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Bernie Sanders is now 77 years old. The new being paraded by the Democrats are now standing far left of Sanders as the Democrat Party doubles down on socialism to capture the social justice worries leaving universities. But what about the 35 to 40 year old Democrats who tend to move center as the grow older? And think of the African American population who now enjoy only 6.6% unemployment, while Hispanic Americans are seeing unemployment levels of 4.4%. They seem to understand that job creation is more important than “hate Trump” posters. Some left leaning TV personalities have openly wished for a recession to see these minorities unemployed, thus increasing the appeal for Democrats in 2020.
The Cultural War strategy has been played but the Democrats must manufacture new victims as the old “oppressed” view themselves as well educated and successful Americans. What percentage of Hispanics will vote Republican in 2020? What about Asians? Despite being told by the main stream media that they are being oppressed by the Trump Administration, recent surveys have suggested that these two groups could see 30 percent of their voting block support the Republicans in 2020.